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L: Biblia. Finally. Take a seat.
B: Sir.
L: You have the data I requested?
B: I have fully perused the port records and performed a visual confirmation of the traffic patterns. I can perform the analysis once you give me the parameters.
L: Good. Give me the overview first.
B: (very fast) Eight percent decrease in inbound passenger transports over three days. Point five percent increase in shipments of grain and other necessities recorded in the last fifteen hours, presumed to rise given the logistics of bulk shipping. Twenty-nine percent increase in local traffic between agrarian zones and the metropoloi, with the most significant increases to Lyceopolis.
L: As expected. Go on.
B: Twelve percent increase in outbound passenger transit, eighty-nine percent of which is private ships. I was not able to access passenger manifests, but an examination of the enrollment files at the Lyceum indicate the sudden withdrawal of one thousand, two hundred and fifty-one aristoi students from their programs of study within the last two days. For such ships as I was able to confirm details of ownership, I can postulate a connection to within ninety-seven percent accuracy.
L: So the sons of the great and the good are being called home. All right. Now, given what we know of the situation, postulate probable causes.
B: Without definitive news, I cannot make any diagnosis.
L: An educated guess will do, Biblia.
B: (pause) I guess that the talent of the Megas Basileus is being inhibited, by means currently unknown. If Alexandros were anywhere within the Empire, his influence would continue to be felt. If he were in transit between satrapies, the thalassa would of course mask his presence, but the longest recorded transit time between gates to date is only two days, fourteen hours, and thirty-seven minutes.
L: He could be dead.
B: Statistically impossible, as the force required to kill an archon of his potency would fracture the planet of Alexandra. No other archon, even a diadoche, has the power to wield such a force, let alone any mortal.
L: Aliens?
B: (snort) The statistical likelihood that another intelligent life form, if such a thing even exists, would be able to enter the Empire and strike at the throneworld completely undetected is negligible, unless we postulate that they possess technology significantly superior to our own. In which case, since we are already within the realms of fantasy, we may as well say that the gods finally decided to take him up to Olympus.
L: I take it you do not subscribe to that possibility.
B: I am probably the most educated woman in the cosmos, and I have yet to find any belief system that cannot be called into question by the Socratic method. By the Pyrrhonian principle, therefore, since nothing can conclusively be known about the gods, to speculate that any event is a result of their actions is less productive than withholding judgement until we have new information.
L: Fair enough. All right, enough speculation. I need you to run some scenarios for me. Assume that the Megas Basileus remains out of contact for the forseeable future. Extrapolate based on all current information the likely political situation within two years.
B: Including or discounting rumors?
L: (pause) Include them. What people believe is as important as what is true.
B: (long pause, then very quickly) Attempted succession of Alexandros Mikros within two months, followed by his imprisonment or assassination within eight months. Declaration of sovereignty by Perdiccas, Antigonus, Shihuangti and Ptolemaios within ten months. Declaration of autonomy by Seleucis, Temujin, Cassandros, Huascar, and Pyrrhus between eleven and sixteen months. Lysimachos Megas, Demetrius, Leonnatus, Peithon, and Krateros will ally with whoever seems most expedient at any given time. Peucestas, Nox'ajaw, Philippos, and the Bodhisattva Ashoka will remain loyal to Alexandros until they receive definite proof of his death. The remaining satrapies will take no action unless provoked.
L: Could any of them be responsible for the shutdown of the Nikeon Gate?
B: Any one of them could potentially be responsible. Which one is most likely depends on whether the gate has been entirely deactivated or whether it has merely been seized. Any of the major satrapies has the military force necessary to take and hold a gate, although getting it to the Nikeon without official comment would be difficult at best.
L: And the other scenario?
B: In the event of a complete shutdown, the only likely candidate is Ptolemaios. He could conceivably have built an expeditionary force in secret and sent it from Memphis five years ago with orders to capture Alexandria, seize and shut down the gate to prevent immediate reprisals. In that event, we should expect an immediate invasion of Babylon, as he will want to capture Alexandros Mikros and secure the crossroads before the proper line of succession can be followed.
L: Makes sense.
B: Of course it does. However, it does not explain what has happened to the Megas Basileus. No matter where he is, we should still be able to feel his presence. Ptolemaios could not mask that, not without help.
L: You have no suppositions?
B: None that fit all the facts.
L: Very well. Needless to say, your furlough has been canceled.
B: I figured as much. Do you have another assignment for me, or can I get back to my research? If the cosmos is going to disintegrate around us, I would rather be doing something actually interesting while it happens.
L: Cheeky. (pause) Stay within reach for the next few days, or if you have to go anywhere, let Hermetios know where he can find you. We should know within a week where we'll be needed. Dismissed.
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